Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T15:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4240…899d
world · 11 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$16 +44%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$16 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage44d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$15
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Senegal leading at halftime? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? No 83¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 05 $2 +$1 +56%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 05 $3 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$13 +170%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $3 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 18 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 18 $5 +$3 +62%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 08 $2 +$6 +344%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 71% +$10
other 16% +$3
sports 13% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.4% -6.4% 100% 0% -6.4%
≤30d 9 +11.5% +0.8% 78% 33% +19.3%
≤90d 10 +44.7% +30.9% 80% 40% +32.5%
all 10 +44.7% +30.9% 80% 40% +32.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.9% 40% +32.5%
10% +18.4% 40% +19.8%
15% +7.0% 40% +8.2%
20% -3.5% 40% -2.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.55 · official $1.55 (match) · 19 history records