Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4241…ad76 sports 975 markets active 1h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$319 (-5%) realized −$294 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate38%365W / 603L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days+$256
14 days+$137
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$256
other 24% −$104
crypto 12% −$120
world 1% −$16
tech 1% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +39.1% +25.8% 47% 44% +18.6%
≤30d 292 -0.7% -10.1% 39% 38% -5.7%
≤90d 292 -0.7% -10.1% 39% 38% -5.7%
all 968 -5.3% -14.4% 38% 37% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 37% -18.2%
10% -22.6% 36% -26.0%
15% -30.0% 33% -33.2%
20% -36.9% 30% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$294
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses365 / 603
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions7
Markets (closed)968 / 975
History coverage188d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 968 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 45¢ 40¢ $40 $36 −$4 (-10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Las Vegas Aces 43¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 231 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $20 −$12 -57%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 +$3 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$29 +140%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $149 +$144 +97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 +$38 +187%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $10 +$7 +64%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $83 −$21 -26%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$17 +327%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $10 +$15 +143%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $10 +$15 +144%
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -67%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +92%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$16 +383%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
ITF Los Angeles: Alina Shcherbinina vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 14 $10 +$15 +143%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $10 +$23 +228%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
ITF San Gregorio: Nadia Podoroska vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 14 $10 +$19 +188%
ITF Decatur: Madison Brengle vs Lea Ma Jun 14 $34 −$33 -98%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $10 +$15 +148%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $31 $0 +2%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 +$16 +1519%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $15 −$14 -99%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $2 +$5 +246%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $56 +$62 +111%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$21 +137%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $20 +$15 +71%
Ilkley: Viktorija Golubic vs Katie Swan Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marie Mettraux vs Anja Stankovic Jun 12 $3 +$3 +114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $48 −$48 -99%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $27 +$21 +75%
Libema Open: Greet Minnen vs Janice Tjen Jun 09 $12 −$12 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $41 35m
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 35m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $54 36m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 1h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 43¢ $20 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $49 2h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $292 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 42¢ $59 6h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Corentin Moutet 46¢ $17 6h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $149 6h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Corentin Moutet 27¢ $10 7h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 7h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 95¢ $180 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 18¢ $22 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $22 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $56 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 21¢ $5 9h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 40¢ $10 11h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce SELL Terence Atmane 99¢ $25 12h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 40¢ $10 12h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari SELL Qinwen Zheng 90¢ $25 12h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 36¢ $10 14h
Nottingham Open: Tatjana Maria vs Janice Tjen BUY Janice Tjen 15¢ $10 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 9¢ $3 23h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 26¢ $10 24h
Sweden leading at halftime? SELL No 18¢ $9 24h
Sweden leading at halftime? BUY No 19¢ $10 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.92 · official $40.93 (match) · 1924 history records