Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T08:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4242…b20d
crypto · 957 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$8 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses720 / 236
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)956 / 957
History coverage23d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day106.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 956 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$22
14 days−$9
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 74¢ 81¢ $18 $20 +$2 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 +$3 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$7 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$13 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $23 −$18 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$12 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$3 +55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $3 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $32 +$2 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $2 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 09 $12 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 09 $18 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 09 $9 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 09 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 09 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 09 $27 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 09 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% +$5
sports 2% −$1
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $6 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +13.1% +2.4% 71% 46% -5.6%
≤30d 956 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 40% -9.5%
≤90d 956 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 40% -9.5%
all 956 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 40% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover106.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 40% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 23% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 13% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.63 · official $19.63 (match) · 3500 history records