Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x4244…ff7e other 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+2%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$1
world 28% +$11
politics 18% +$1
sports 10% $0
economics 6% $0
weather 2% +$4
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 22% -6.0%
≤90d 9 -7.9% -16.7% 33% 22% -6.0%
all 42 -2.7% -12.0% 50% 7% -7.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 7% -7.4%
10% -20.4% 2% -16.3%
15% -28.1% 0% -24.4%
20% -35.2% 0% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×5.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.62 per $1 lost it wins $7.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage471d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $46 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $51 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $33 +$5 +16%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $22 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $69 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $35 +$6 +16%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -6%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 28 $7 $0 +2%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $12 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2800 on June 3? Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 18 $13 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? May 14 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Ontario in the next Canad Apr 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 22 $7 $0 +0%
Will Zach Edey win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 22 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $20 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $20 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 03 $20 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 29 $20 $0 +0%
Will Lazio win the UEFA Europa League? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Mar 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 24 $20 $0 +1%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2025 China Grand Prix? Mar 24 $19 +$1 +7%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Mar 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 22 $18 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Aston Villa win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 17 $18 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 16 $18 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650-674 times March 7-14? Mar 15 $19 $0 +2%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25-1.29ºC in February 20 Mar 12 $15 +$4 +30%
Will Trump say 'terrible' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 03 $15 $0 -2%
Wake Forest vs. Duke Mar 03 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $46 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $46 3h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 21d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $51 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 22d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $14 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 24¢ $13 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $33 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $0 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $0 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $13 23d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $22 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $23 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $23 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 98¢ $46 24d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 99¢ $46 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? SELL Yes $1 24d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? BUY Yes $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $31 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $16 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records