Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:14:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4245…a467 weather 787 markets active 2h ago coverage 115d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 114d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$530 (+4%) realized +$472 · open +$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%290W / 471L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day26.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$416now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days−$134
14 days+$131
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$500
crypto 3% −$6
other 1% −$66
sports 0% −$6
politics 0% −$3
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 80 -25.5% -32.6% 26% 26% -16.5%
≤30d 363 -18.8% -26.5% 30% 29% -15.7%
≤90d 673 -7.9% -16.7% 32% 32% -6.2%
all 761 -7.9% -16.6% 38% 29% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 29% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 29% -15.3%
15% -31.9% 27% -23.5%
20% -38.6% 26% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$14 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$416
Realized+$472
Unrealized+$58
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses290 / 471
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions25
Markets (closed)761 / 787
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day26.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 25 History 761 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? Yes 38¢ 50¢ $38 $50 +$12 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 14¢ 100¢ $7 $50 +$43 (+634%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $35 $42 +$8 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 17? Yes 30¢ 58¢ $18 $35 +$17 (+93%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 44¢ $22 $26 +$5 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 44¢ $14 $26 +$12 (+85%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $7 $20 +$13 (+170%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $14 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 17? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 223 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $35 +$55 +157%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$35 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 +$38 +334%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$10 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$4 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$13 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 −$36 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $17 −$14 -87%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 −$14 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 +$34 +128%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $19 +$31 +159%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $18 +$50 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 16? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $16 −$16 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $35 −$22 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $24 −$23 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 +$53 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 +$45 +174%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $33 −$32 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $74 −$47 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -97%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 −$23 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $28 +$37 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $32 +$42 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $44 +$26 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $19 −$18 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $34 +$46 +133%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$25 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$19 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 −$11 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 35¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 18? BUY Yes 27¢ $14 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 17h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 22¢ $13 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $18 20h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 16? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $415.76 · official $415.77 (match) · 3500 history records