Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:02:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4246…857c sports 1074 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%1051W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$45
other 18% −$91
weather 16% −$142
crypto 3% +$1
finance 2% +$1
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 193 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 1073 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.0%
all 1073 -0.5% -10.0% 98% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -10.0%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1051 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1073 / 1074
History coverage77d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1073 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of Crystal Palace? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jack Eichel win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Montgomery vs Tomljanovic Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 23h
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $33 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $3 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $3 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $4 26h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 100¢ $6 26h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 27h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 28h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 100¢ $50 29h
Maghreb AS de Fès vs. RS Berkane: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 31h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY No 100¢ $50 46h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Luca Van Assche BUY Luca Van Assche 100¢ $50 2d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 100¢ $15 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 100¢ $6 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 100¢ $4 2d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Renata Zarazua 100¢ $25 2d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY ECHO 100¢ $50 2d
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 100¢ $50 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 2214 history records