Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4247…91c4 sports 801 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (194 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$393,813 (-18%) realized −$365,359 · open −$28,454
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate23%160W / 534L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,707per market
Trades / day193.9pace
Fees−$2,817est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$37,749now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5,020
world 36% −$763
other 15% −$34,155
sports 8% −$231
economics 4% −$1
crypto 1% −$11,139
finance 0% +$78
weather 0% −$43
tech 0% −$44
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (194 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 365 +18.8% +7.5% 26% 21% -17.5%
≤30d 694 +2.5% -7.3% 23% 18% -17.5%
≤90d 694 +2.5% -7.3% 23% 18% -17.5%
all 694 +2.5% -7.3% 23% 18% -17.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover193.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 18% -17.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 16% -25.4%
15% -24.3% 13% -32.6%
20% -31.7% 11% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$121 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$37,749
Realized−$365,359
Unrealized−$28,454
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses160 / 534
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$2,817
Open positions209
Markets (closed)694 / 801
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$2,707
Trades / day193.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 209 History 694 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13,879 $13,786 −$93 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $3,053 $3,587 +$535 (+18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $3,500 $3,318 −$182 (-5%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? Yes 36¢ $24,626 $2,364 −$22,262 (-90%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,895 $2,247 −$648 (-22%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1,842 $1,592 −$249 (-14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $892 $997 +$105 (+12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $823 $855 +$32 (+4%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ $257 $741 +$484 (+189%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $512 $690 +$178 (+35%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $605 $608 +$3 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $380 $416 +$37 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $317 $325 +$9 (+3%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Yes 26¢ $23 $288 +$265 (+1148%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 17¢ 28¢ $175 $278 +$103 (+59%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $450 $242 −$209 (-46%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $198 $205 +$7 (+3%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 10¢ $132 $205 +$72 (+54%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $155 $196 +$42 (+27%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 11¢ $4,861 $192 −$4,669 (-96%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $231 $191 −$40 (-17%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes $277 $185 −$92 (-33%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $177 $180 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ $1,210 $175 −$1,036 (-86%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 56¢ 77¢ $123 $170 +$47 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C or higher on April Jun 16 $0 +$11 +6488%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Jun 16 $0 $0 +203%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Jun 16 $0 +$21 +11316%
FC Nantes leading at halftime? Jun 16 $0 +$5 +5284%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -65922%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ASTRAL (BO3) - LORGAR RANKINGS Playoff Jun 16 $0 −$3 -1195%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1031%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +1868%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? Jun 16 $0 $0 -248%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 16? Jun 16 $0 +$1 +11207%
Will Analog Devices' Q2 Industrial revenue be above $1.9B? Jun 16 $0 −$1 -1860%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $0 +$49 +319162%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$11 +238%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $457 −$21 -4%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$5 -64%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $66 −$60 -91%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $139 −$125 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$33 +236%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $81 on June 15? Jun 15 $73 +$176 +242%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $82 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $22 −$8 -38%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $176 −$174 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $25 −$16 -66%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$29 +307%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $290 on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $26 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +27%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +76%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$5 +250%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 99¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 100¢ $10 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $19 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $34 3h
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $96 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $2 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No $6 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $10 5h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 6h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $6 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 7h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 51¢ $48 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $4 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 7h
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $85 7h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 7h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $108 7h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No $6 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 7h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 13¢ $137 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37,748.56 · official $37,748.91 (match) · 3500 history records