Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:31:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4247…455f
weather · 1798 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$13,409 +231%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,785 · open −$3,977
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13,236
Realized+$2,785
Unrealized−$3,977
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses641 / 619
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions266
Markets (closed)1260 / 1798
History coverage32d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day103.6
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit71%
Chart Positions 266 History 1260 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$202
14 days+$926
30 days+$2,795
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $6,250 $10,620 +$4,369 (+70%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 15¢ $6,250 $1,881 −$4,369 (-70%)
Will FaZe Vegas finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? No 1¢ 44¢ $2 $89 +$87 (+4350%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $660 in May? No 1¢ 50¢ $0 $25 +$24 (+4850%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $970? No 1¢ 10¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+900%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $960? No 1¢ 10¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+900%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $980? No 1¢ 10¢ $2 $20 +$18 (+900%)
Will West Virginia win the 2026 College World Series? No 10¢ 69¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+593%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $850B by June 30? No 5¢ 44¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+790%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 7¢ 42¢ $2 $12 +$10 (+493%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $940? No 1¢ 5¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+400%)
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 8 above $950? No 1¢ 5¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+400%)
Will Sergey Brin be 2nd richest person on December 31? No 13¢ 66¢ $2 $10 +$8 (+397%)
Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026? No 5¢ 68¢ $1 $9 +$8 (+1224%)
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026? No 4¢ 18¢ $2 $9 +$7 (+341%)
Will Based Polymarket revenue hit $2M before 2027? No 13¢ 54¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+312%)
Will Movsar Evloev fight Alexander Volkanovski next? No 4¢ 14¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+238%)
Dreamcash FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 4¢ 34¢ $1 $6 +$6 (+750%)
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $8.5B by June 30? No 1¢ 68¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+6750%)
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? No 9¢ 31¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+230%)
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year? No 8¢ 24¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+194%)
Will USD/KRW hit 1650 (High) in 2026? No 4¢ 78¢ $0 $6 +$6 (+1837%)
Will Astralis make a roster change before July? No 8¢ 21¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+162%)
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 15¢ 38¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+153%)
Will Nathaniel Lowe win the 2026 AL Platinum Glove award? No 25¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+299%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Min Woo Lee finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 Texas Children's Hous Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia enter Dovha Balka by April 30? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump or Melania say "School" at the Military Mothers event? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
North Korea missile launch by February 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 69,800 on March 24, 8PM ET? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 20 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Amen Thompson: Points Over 20.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on April 6? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on January 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 21°C on April 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 76°F or higher on February 10 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on April 5? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 52-53°F on February Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will JPMorgan say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during earnings call? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump post "Ass" on Truth Social this week? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meta (META) finish week of March 16 above $590? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jim Pillen win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary elec Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on April 5? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Saint Peter's Peacocks (W) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of April 13 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Collin Morikawa finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 RBC Heritage? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of April 13 above $2.50? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on March 17? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 22? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Protest" be said during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Exper Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on January Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump post "Save America Act" or "Save Act" this week on Truth So Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 21? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the total number of TSA passengers for January 21 be between 1,80 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $87.50 Week of April 20 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 23? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Gervonta Davis arrested by January 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be betwe Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Obliteration" or "Obliterated" during the Board of Pea Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
US bank failure by March 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Trey Murphy III: Assists Over 3.5 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 4, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Russia enter Kurylivka by February 28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "North Carolina" during the State of the Union address? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 43% −$4,077
weather 22% +$917
other 19% +$1,858
world 4% +$69
crypto 3% −$43
tech 3% +$270
sports 2% +$90
finance 2% +$74
culture 1% +$47
economics 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $2 14m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 79¢ $5 23m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 22¢ $2 26m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 15¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 15¢ $1 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 19¢ $1 30m
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? BUY No 26¢ $2 46m
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 87¢ $3 47m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 31¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 23¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 23¢ $0 1h
Will Ecuador be an advancing Group Stage third-place team at the 2026 BUY No 12¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 23¢ $2 1h
Will Jared Polis be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? BUY No 59¢ $0 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 90¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $9 1h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 27¢ $2 1h
Will FaZe Vegas finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? BUY No 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 7¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $3 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be greater than 19m? SELL No 50¢ $8 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 45¢ $2 1h
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? BUY No 53¢ $1 1h
Will Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $3 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 7¢ $2 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 29¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $5 2h
Will Oklahoma win the 2026 College World Series? SELL No 92¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+95.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 +56.2% +41.3% 41% 40% +8.3%
≤30d 1245 +117.6% +96.8% 51% 51% +60.2%
≤90d 1260 +116.5% +95.8% 51% 51% +59.1%
all 1260 +116.5% +95.8% 51% 51% +59.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover103.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +95.8% 51% +59.1%
10% ← realistic here +77.1% 50% +43.9%
15% +60.0% 46% +30.0%
20% +44.3% 42% +17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,236.05 · official $13,223.77 (match) · 3500 history records