Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

42 0x4247…69a3 world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown32%max

Avg bet$445per market

Trades / day1.3pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	50%	0%	-9.1%
≤30d	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	50%	0%	-9.1%
≤90d	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	50%	0%	-9.1%
all	4	+0.4%	-9.1%	50%	0%	-9.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.1%	0%	-9.1%
10%	-17.8%	0%	-17.8%
15%	-25.8%	0%	-25.8%
20%	-33.0%	0%	-33.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 83% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.16 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$6

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage6d

Avg bet$445

Trades / day1.3

Drawdown32%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	Jun 26	$435	−$3	-1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	Jun 26	$432	−$1	-0%
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?	Jun 20	$456	+$10	+2%
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun	Jun 20	$457	+$2	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	SELL No	92¢	$432	1h
Will US annex any territory in 2026?	BUY No	92¢	$435	2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	SELL No	90¢	$431	3h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	BUY No	90¢	$432	4h
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?	SELL No	95¢	$466	5d
Will Russia enter Borova by June 30?	BUY No	93¢	$456	6d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun	SELL No	93¢	$459	6d
Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun	BUY No	92¢	$457	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records