Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:08:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
42 0x4248…d43f sports 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 455d
TRAPdo not copy
Total PnL +$1,986 (+7%) realized +$2,045 · open −$101
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate48%62W / 68L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$212per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$174
14 days+$122
30 days+$258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$2,728
politics 13% −$239
sports 13% −$562
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 12 +14.2% +3.3% 75% 75% +14.1%
≤90d 86 -20.2% -27.8% 44% 42% -10.2%
all 130 -18.9% -26.6% 48% 40% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 40% -3.2%
10% -33.6% 36% -12.4%
15% -40.0% 28% -20.9%
20% -45.9% 24% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$101 vs −$62 · ×1.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.49 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

455d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$2,045
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses62 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)130 / 138
History coverage455d
Avg bet$212
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 52¢ 54¢ $67 $68 +$2 (+3%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $38 $34 −$4 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ $13 $26 +$13 (+102%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+27%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 90¢ 99¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 17¢ 10¢ $17 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ $14 $2 −$13 (-88%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $99 $2 −$97 (-98%)
James Harden: Points O/U 20.5 No 46¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Lenny Martinez win the Tour de France 2025? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? No 51¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5 No 49¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 No 46¢ $103 $0 −$103 (-100%)
Quentin Grimes: Points O/U 19.5 Yes 43¢ $129 $0 −$129 (-100%)
Justin Edwards: Points O/U 11.5 Yes 41¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Parham Maghsoodloo win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam South Africa? Yes $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
LaMelo Ball: Points O/U 19.5 No 42¢ $84 $0 −$84 (-100%)
Pelle Larsson: Points O/U 11.5 Yes 49¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Moussa Diabaté: Points O/U 8.5 No 76¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5 No 47¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 17.5 No 45¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Remco Evenepoel finish in the top 10 at the 2025 Tour de France? Yes 82¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) FC Bayern München 23¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Yes $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Will Felix Gall win the Tour de France 2025? Yes $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 09 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $49 −$48 -98%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $46 +$15 +34%
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $35 +$27 +78%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $84 +$25 +30%
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $77 +$20 +26%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $50 +$23 +45%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $106 +$23 +21%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $159 +$127 +80%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $158 +$36 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $102 +$136 +134%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $190 +$20 +11%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $50 +$68 +134%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) Apr 15 $22 −$21 -97%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 15 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? Apr 05 $510 +$235 +46%
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 29 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 29 $96 −$96 -100%
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5 Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Kevin Huerter: Points O/U 8.5 Mar 26 $94 −$94 -100%
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5 Mar 26 $78 −$78 -100%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Mar 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Miles Bridges: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Ace Bailey: Points O/U 24.5 Mar 26 $13 +$15 +116%
Dylan Harper: Points O/U 15.5 Mar 26 $38 +$37 +96%
Pascal Siakam: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 26 $72 +$92 +127%
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 12.5 Mar 26 $90 +$110 +122%
Andrew Nembhard: Points O/U 15.5 Mar 26 $98 +$102 +104%
Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 19.5 Mar 26 $88 +$112 +127%
Andrew Wiggins: Points O/U 12.5 Mar 26 $100 +$100 +100%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 28.5 Mar 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Keldon Johnson: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 25 $46 −$46 -100%
Sam Hauser: Points O/U 6.5 Mar 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 34.5 Mar 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Collin Sexton: Points O/U 14.5 Mar 25 $95 −$95 -100%
Devin Vassell: Points O/U 13.5 Mar 25 $58 −$58 -100%
Luguentz Dort: Points O/U 5.5 Mar 25 $76 −$76 -100%
LeBron James: Points O/U 18.5 Mar 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5 Mar 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Points O/U 11.5 Mar 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Joel Embiid: Points O/U 21.5 Mar 25 $27 −$27 -100%
Jaxson Hayes: Points O/U 6.5 Mar 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 23.5 Mar 25 $94 −$94 -100%
Paul George: Points O/U 14.5 Mar 25 $84 −$84 -100%
Paul George: Points O/U 15.5 Mar 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - Journ Mar 25 $145 +$9 +6%
Counter-Strike: Mindfreak vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oce Mar 25 $54 −$8 -15%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 19.5 Mar 25 $20 +$20 +100%
Malik Monk: Points O/U 15.5 Mar 25 $61 +$66 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 17¢ $17 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $39 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $103 5d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Paraguay $25 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 5d
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $62 10d
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $62 10d
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $109 10d
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $97 10d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $73 10d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 61¢ $129 10d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 28¢ $286 10d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 33¢ $194 10d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 42¢ $102 15d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 90¢ $190 35d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-2.5) BUY FC Bayern München 11¢ $22 60d
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) BUY FC Bayern München 23¢ $32 60d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $50 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $99 60d
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? BUY Yes 68¢ $108 71d
Will Tadej Pogacar win the 2026 Men's Tour de Flanders? BUY Yes 68¢ $402 71d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes $21 77d
Will Matthias Bluebaum win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes $33 77d
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? BUY Yes $96 77d
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 42¢ $10 80d
Kevin Huerter: Points O/U 8.5 BUY No 47¢ $12 80d
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5 BUY No 47¢ $78 80d
Kevin Huerter: Points O/U 8.5 BUY No 47¢ $82 80d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 BUY No 41¢ $1 80d
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 BUY No 41¢ $28 80d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.45 · official $169.45 (match) · 705 history records