Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:21:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x424c…82b5 sports 533 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$656 (-4%) realized −$667 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%273W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$173est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$102
7 days+$101
14 days−$1,278
30 days−$811
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$352
politics 6% −$77
world 4% −$371
other 4% −$45
crypto 2% +$21
tech 2% +$54
finance 0% +$4
culture 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 +22.2% +10.6% 65% 65% -6.5%
≤30d 520 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 51% -14.5%
≤90d 520 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 51% -14.5%
all 520 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 51% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 51% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 48% -22.7%
15% -27.6% 42% -30.2%
20% -34.7% 37% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$23 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$667
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses273 / 247
Est. fees paid−$173
Open positions13
Markets (closed)520 / 533
History coverage23d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 520 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 99¢ $68 $71 +$3 (+5%)
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 76¢ 80¢ $31 $33 +$2 (+6%)
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 56¢ 57¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 51¢ 52¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 68¢ 99¢ $16 $24 +$7 (+46%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 49¢ 50¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 72¢ 58¢ $24 $19 −$4 (-19%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ 38¢ $13 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 37¢ 38¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro Navarro 62¢ 81¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 169 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery Jun 17 $299 −$14 -5%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$18 +172%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 +$11 +42%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 +$13 +65%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +99%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 Jun 17 $11 +$9 +79%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 17 $30 −$16 -53%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $17 +$2 +13%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 16 $16 +$8 +48%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell Jun 16 $3 +$2 +93%
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $319 −$11 -3%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $14 +$10 +67%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $17 +$7 +38%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $19 +$11 +60%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $23 +$10 +42%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 15 $18 −$17 -99%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 15 $9 −$9 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 +$10 +114%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $12 +$7 +65%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $35 +$11 +32%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$11 +86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 15 $13 +$13 +96%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 14 $28 +$15 +53%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $55 +$60 +110%
Will Fiona Ma win the California Lieutenant Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $187 −$1 -1%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$19 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 14 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $9 +$21 +216%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 +$6 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $23 +$15 +65%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$5 +17%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $18 +$20 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $13 +$14 +109%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $20 +$18 +90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $12 +$16 +134%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $156 +$37 +24%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $18 −$17 -99%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $72 +$17 +24%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 −$21 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $19 −$18 -98%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $11 +$13 +109%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery SELL Ayla Aksu 50¢ $285 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 51¢ $149 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Ayla Aksu vs Sachia Vickery BUY Ayla Aksu 51¢ $149 1h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $23 5h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $18 6h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 51¢ $8 8h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 56¢ $12 8h
Set 1 Winner: Starodubtseva vs Navarro BUY Navarro 62¢ $3 8h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 59¢ $12 8h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL No 85¢ $1 9h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $0 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $10 16h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 176.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $11 17h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $13 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $9 30h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 31h
Set 1 Winner: Popyrin vs Collignon BUY Collignon 55¢ $3 32h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $1 33h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 49¢ $10 34h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $159 34h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 50¢ $6 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $2 36h
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Birrell BUY Birrell 51¢ $3 36h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 36h
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 60¢ $20 36h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 38¢ $1 36h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $159 36h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 59¢ $14 41h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Harry Wendelken 32¢ $4 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $287.41 · official $285.59 (match) · 1023 history records