Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:33:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
42 0x424c…5eca other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$245 (+8%) realized +$228 · open +$17
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$417now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$421
14 days+$408
30 days+$408
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$199
crypto 15% +$227
sports 10% −$80
world 7% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +80.2% +63.0% 86% 71% +30.1%
≤30d 13 +41.9% +28.4% 77% 69% +14.0%
≤90d 21 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 52% +5.5%
all 21 +7.5% -2.8% 57% 52% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 52% +5.5%
10% -12.1% 43% -4.6%
15% -20.6% 43% -13.8%
20% -28.4% 29% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late +57% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$59 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$417
Realized+$228
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 27
History coverage71d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $400 $417 +$17 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $103 +$17 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $401 +$29 +7%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $102 +$184 +180%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AN Jun 20 $51 +$175 +342%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$63 +61%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$44 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $102 +$20 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 07 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the May 01 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 25 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 24 $200 +$152 +76%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 24 $100 +$39 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 30¢ $102 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $120 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND W BUY 11¢ $103 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $401 2d
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $102 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 13¢ $103 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $51 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-2 BUY $51 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $165 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 4d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? AN BUY 22¢ $51 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $410 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 9d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 10d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 36¢ $122 11d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $97 49d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes $10 53d
Will Charles Leclerc achieve pole position in Sprint Qualifying at the BUY Yes 23¢ $10 55d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY G2 74¢ $101 55d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $100 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $200 62d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 62d
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $10 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $416.54 · official $616.54 · 53 history records