Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:33:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
42 0x424d…3b7e other 41 markets active 3h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$32,812 (+58%) realized +$33,068 · open −$256
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +83% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip
Net edge+35%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$1,383per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$600est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$9,403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$34,634
sports 40% −$3,108
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+65.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +83.2% +65.8% 37% 37% +55.7%
≤30d 35 +83.2% +65.8% 37% 37% +55.7%
≤90d 35 +83.2% +65.8% 37% 37% +55.7%
all 35 +83.2% +65.8% 37% 37% +55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +65.8% 37% +55.7%
10% +49.9% 37% +40.8%
15% ← realistic here +35.4% 34% +27.2%
20% +22.1% 29% +14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +73% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +83% · $-wt +73% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +45% → late +119% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4,063 vs −$956 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.51 per $1 lost it wins $2.51
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$9,403
Realized+$33,068
Unrealized−$256
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$600
Open positions6
Markets (closed)35 / 41
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,383
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2,421 $2,471 +$50 (+2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,691 $1,644 −$47 (-3%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,691 $1,644 −$47 (-3%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1,446 $1,374 −$72 (-5%)
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1,446 $1,366 −$80 (-6%)
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $964 $904 −$60 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $5,000 −$4,834 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 24 $1,321 −$1,277 -97%
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $4,907 +$747 +15%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $2,501 +$5,176 +207%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $4,699 −$4,546 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? Jun 23 $1,750 −$1,686 -96%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $500 +$10,463 +2092%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1,500 +$2,334 +156%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $356 −$343 -96%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $250 −$240 -96%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $500 −$481 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,300 +$9,252 +402%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $500 −$482 -96%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $1,363 +$5,277 +387%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $500 −$482 -96%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $500 −$482 -96%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $5,000 +$3,216 +64%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $1,500 −$1,448 -96%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,000 −$962 -96%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,000 −$963 -96%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Iraq? Jun 22 $200 −$193 -96%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Iraq? Jun 22 $250 −$240 -96%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1,000 +$8,540 +854%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 3 Egypt? Jun 22 $2,900 +$1,179 +41%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $945 −$934 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $175 −$168 -96%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $309 −$298 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $375 −$363 -97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $250 −$241 -96%
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 22 $157 −$152 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,400 +$1,437 +103%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $372 −$223 -60%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $1,000 +$3,782 +378%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $336 +$1,381 +411%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $100 +$36 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,750 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,750 3h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 1 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,500 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $1,500 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,000 3h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,500 3h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1,500 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,321 4h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? SELL Yes 23¢ $5,298 5h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $500 7h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,000 7h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $4,657 7h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? SELL Yes 99¢ $7,676 7h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $500 7h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 31¢ $2,501 8h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,199 9h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,500 9h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $10,963 10h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $3,834 11h
Exact Score: Colombia 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $250 13h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 6¢ $250 13h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 4¢ $500 13h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2,000 13h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2,000 13h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1,500 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 7¢ $356 14h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $250 14h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $500 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $11,552 27h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,300 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,403.40 · official $9,403.40 (match) · 79 history records