Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:37:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x424d…c756 other 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 294d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,372 (-26%) realized −$1,367 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%21W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$280now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$137
14 days+$137
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,167
sports 26% −$503
politics 20% +$260
world 6% +$84
tech 3% −$33
economics 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +26.6% +14.6% 67% 67% +27.0%
≤30d 3 +26.6% +14.6% 67% 67% +27.0%
≤90d 3 +26.6% +14.6% 67% 67% +27.0%
all 60 -19.4% -27.1% 35% 35% -34.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 35% -34.0%
10% -34.1% 30% -40.3%
15% -40.4% 27% -46.1%
20% -46.3% 23% -51.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$69 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

294d coverage
Net worth$280
Realized−$1,367
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses21 / 39
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)60 / 64
History coverage294d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $135 $131 −$4 (-3%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance Norway 65¢ 64¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance Portugal 69¢ 68¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $50 −$23 -46%
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Jun 28 $190 +$72 +38%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Jun 28 $100 +$89 +89%
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? Dec 13 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 11 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Dec 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Dec 10 $80 +$11 +14%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Nov 10 $30 +$12 +41%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 10 $60 +$21 +35%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 10 $651 −$564 -87%
Current shutdown longest in U.S. history? Nov 10 $100 +$59 +59%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Nov 02 $464 −$458 -99%
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? Nov 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Nov 01 $210 −$24 -12%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Nov 01 $82 −$31 -38%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Nov 01 $80 −$80 -100%
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31? Oct 30 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-18? Oct 30 $40 +$60 +150%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 30 $60 +$49 +82%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 30 $120 +$68 +57%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? Oct 25 $100 +$97 +96%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 American League Championship? Oct 23 $165 −$19 -12%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Oct 21 $50 −$39 -78%
Will the federal government be shut down for 10–29 days in 2025? Oct 20 $50 −$37 -75%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? Oct 20 $35 −$19 -55%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-19? Oct 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $200 −$11 -6%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Oct 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Penguins vs. Rangers Oct 16 $20 +$37 +186%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Oct 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 16 $110 +$86 +78%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Oct 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Oct 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Katy Perry and Justin Trudeau confirmed relationship by October 31? Oct 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on November Oct 12 $100 −$100 -100%
US forces in Venezuela by December 31? Oct 11 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Wavel Ramkalawan win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election? Oct 11 $135 −$110 -81%
Will Ecuador win on 2025-10-10? Oct 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Canada win on 2025-10-10? Oct 10 $20 −$20 -100%
French election called by December 31? Oct 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Macron out in 2025? Oct 10 $20 −$2 -11%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 09 $120 +$327 +272%
Will Curtis Sliwa drop out? Oct 09 $40 −$18 -45%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 09 $51 +$125 +245%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $30 −$29 -96%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Oct 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Tigers vs. Mariners Oct 06 $20 +$21 +104%
Will Club Brugge win on 2025-09-30? Sep 30 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-09-28? Sep 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $36 1h
Will Colombia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Portugal vs. Croatia: Team to Advance BUY Portugal 69¢ $50 1h
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 12¢ $27 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advance BUY Norway 65¢ $81 6h
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 72¢ $190 11h
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok? SELL Yes 63¢ $98 198d
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? SELL Yes 96¢ $81 231d
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes $87 231d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 83¢ $80 239d
Ukraine hits Moscow by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $80 240d
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? BUY Yes 88¢ $80 240d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 240d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? SELL Yes 31¢ $67 240d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? SELL Yes 36¢ $51 240d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 49¢ $80 240d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 68¢ $100 242d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 242d
TikTok sale announced in 2025? BUY Yes 58¢ $82 245d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 246d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-10-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $40 247d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 88¢ $40 247d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 68¢ $40 247d
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 48¢ $40 247d
Will the federal government be shut down for 30 or more days in 2025? SELL Yes 94¢ $197 247d
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? SELL Yes $11 251d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? BUY Yes 33¢ $19 251d
Mariners vs. Blue Jays BUY Blue Jays 55¢ $60 251d
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 251d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $279.57 · official $279.57 (match) · 388 history records