Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:20:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x424e…263b
crypto · 194 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$1,753 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,583 · open +$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,381
Realized+$1,583
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses125 / 64
Open positions18
Markets (closed)189 / 194
History coverage1d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day3286.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 18 History 189 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,583
7 days+$1,583
14 days+$1,583
30 days+$1,583
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $385 $384 −$1 (-0%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 61¢ $273 $353 +$81 (+30%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 64¢ $270 $346 +$76 (+28%)
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Cincinnati Reds 61¢ 72¢ $207 $246 +$39 (+19%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 47¢ 40¢ $263 $224 −$39 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 48¢ 60¢ $175 $222 +$48 (+27%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Under 54¢ 56¢ $194 $203 +$9 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 65¢ 40¢ $174 $105 −$69 (-40%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $88 $77 −$11 (-12%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 49¢ 92¢ $31 $58 +$27 (+89%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 56¢ $37 $48 +$11 (+31%)
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 38¢ 23¢ $77 $47 −$30 (-39%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 45¢ 54¢ $24 $29 +$5 (+20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Down 43¢ 62¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Over 53¢ 30¢ $11 $6 −$5 (-43%)
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ 66¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Up 42¢ 46¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+11%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 0¢ 74¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+0%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 60¢ 8¢ $27 $3 −$23 (-88%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Up 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Down 32¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Down 26¢ 34¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$7 -200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $217 −$42 -20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $74 +$8 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $68 −$3 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $221 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $158 +$15 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $187 +$33 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $208 +$63 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $57 +$26 +45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $79 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $263 −$74 -28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$34 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $358 +$38 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $74 −$40 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$10 -76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $198 −$75 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $217 −$31 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $197 −$8 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $37 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $53 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $423 +$43 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$11 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $220 −$31 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$56 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $331 +$124 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $28 +$13 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $282 +$105 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $273 +$159 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $247 −$28 -12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $83 +$27 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $201 +$4 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $210 −$57 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $151 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $363 +$15 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $67 +$79 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $59 +$24 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 12 $339 +$120 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% +$1,501
other 8% +$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $12 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $11 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $12 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $14 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $9 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $9 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 189 +10.7% +0.1% 66% 52% -2.8%
≤30d 189 +10.7% +0.1% 66% 52% -2.8%
≤90d 189 +10.7% +0.1% 66% 52% -2.8%
all 189 +10.7% +0.1% 66% 52% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3286.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.1% 52% -2.8%
10% ← realistic here -9.5% 32% -12.1%
15% -18.2% 17% -20.6%
20% -26.2% 9% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,381.09 · official $2,355.11 · 3500 history records