Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
42 0x4254…1d02 crypto 1264 markets active 2h ago coverage 64d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 63d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,089 (-12%) realized −$2,106 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate59%751W / 512L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day42.5pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,814
weather 36% −$59
sports 10% +$26
other 2% −$77
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 23 -10.2% -18.7% 43% 43% -18.1%
≤90d 1263 -6.5% -15.4% 59% 46% -20.0%
all 1263 -6.5% -15.4% 59% 46% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 46% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 29% -27.7%
15% -30.9% 14% -34.6%
20% -37.7% 8% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$124
Realized−$2,106
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses751 / 512
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1263 / 1264
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1263 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Over 22¢ 26¢ $107 $124 +$17 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $102 +$111 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 01 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 01 $105 +$33 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 01 $146 +$42 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 01 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 01 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 28 $22 −$13 -59%
Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs Bandecchi May 28 $6 +$5 +89%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos May 28 $9 −$5 -56%
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Korneeva May 28 $4 +$7 +188%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $13 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 28 $11 +$9 +88%
Set 1 Winner: Vekic vs Osaka May 28 $3 +$8 +291%
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Tiafoe May 28 $5 +$6 +128%
Set 1 Winner: Comesana vs Darderi May 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Burruchaga May 28 $6 −$5 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Parry May 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Sakkari vs Liu May 28 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4 −$3 -98%
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Gaston May 28 $8 −$7 -99%
Set 1 Winner: Svajda vs Walton May 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs TNC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage May 28 $5 $0 -11%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 May 28 $1 $0 +33%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $0 $0 +59%
Set 1 Winner: Humbert vs Halys May 27 $6 −$5 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 27 $6 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 27 $16 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET May 27 $14 +$6 +48%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 26 $13 −$1 -6%
XRP Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 26 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 26 $6 −$4 -62%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-24? May 26 $18 +$8 +42%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs G2 Esports (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 May 26 $12 +$13 +105%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $27 −$2 -7%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - May 26 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 26 $8 +$5 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $7 −$6 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 26 $26 −$23 -88%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 26 $9 −$9 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner May 25 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Roun May 25 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $13 $0 +1%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 25 $16 −$15 -99%
Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $21 +$2 +8%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $27 −$13 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 24 $42 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 24 $105 −$100 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 22¢ $109 1h
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $212 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $37 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $138 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $188 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $42 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 25d
Colombia vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 47¢ $102 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $106 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $14 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $14 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $8 29d
Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs Bandecchi SELL Kasatkina 100¢ $1 29d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos SELL Hanwha Eagles 33¢ $4 29d
Set 1 Winner: Comesana vs Darderi BUY Darderi 50¢ $5 29d
Set 1 Winner: Comesana vs Darderi BUY Darderi 44¢ $5 29d
Set 1 Winner: Auger-Aliassime vs Burruchaga BUY Auger-Aliassime 53¢ $6 29d
Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs Bandecchi SELL Kasatkina 100¢ $10 29d
Set 1 Winner: Li vs Parry BUY Li 49¢ $5 29d
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Korneeva SELL Kalinskaya 100¢ $10 29d
Set 1 Winner: Kasatkina vs Bandecchi BUY Kasatkina 52¢ $6 29d
Set 1 Winner: Sakkari vs Liu BUY Sakkari 35¢ $4 29d
Set 1 Winner: Kalinskaya vs Korneeva BUY Kalinskaya 34¢ $4 29d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Spirit 33¢ $4 29d
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 46¢ $5 29d
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Tiafoe SELL Hurkacz 100¢ $10 29d
Set 1 Winner: Hurkacz vs Tiafoe BUY Hurkacz 43¢ $5 29d
Set 1 Winner: Cerundolo vs Gaston BUY Cerundolo 73¢ $8 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.80 · official $123.80 (match) · 3500 history records