Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:14:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4255…147d crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$5 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%65W / 50L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$9
crypto 32% −$3
other 17% −$3
economics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 50% -28.2%
≤30d 5 +8.9% -1.5% 80% 80% -8.5%
≤90d 41 -8.2% -16.9% 59% 46% -12.5%
all 115 +4.5% -5.5% 57% 47% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.5% 47% -9.6%
10% -14.5% 37% -18.3%
15% -22.8% 23% -26.2%
20% -30.3% 16% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$5
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses65 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage225d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $103 $99 −$5 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET May 22 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 21 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 20 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 13 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET May 09 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 23 $11 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $11 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $11 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +8%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Mar 30 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 30 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 24 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Mar 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 11 $994 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 11 $995 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 11 $996 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 60¢ $67 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 59¢ $64 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 58¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 33d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 42d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 43d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.54 · official $98.55 (match) · 286 history records