Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4255…bd40
crypto · 14 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$1 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 13 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Up 65¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +10.0% -0.5% 62% 62% -12.6%
≤30d 13 +10.0% -0.5% 62% 62% -12.6%
≤90d 13 +10.0% -0.5% 62% 62% -12.6%
all 13 +10.0% -0.5% 62% 62% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 62% -12.6%
10% -10.0% 54% -20.9%
15% -18.7% 46% -28.6%
20% -26.7% 38% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.24 · official $0.58 (match) · 36 history records