Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x4258…85ad other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%15W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$86now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$24
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% +$39
politics 9% −$50
crypto 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -10.9% -19.3% 56% 56% -14.4%
≤30d 26 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 58% -9.6%
≤90d 26 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 58% -9.6%
all 26 -8.6% -17.3% 58% 58% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 58% -9.6%
10% -25.2% 46% -18.2%
15% -32.4% 42% -26.1%
20% -39.1% 27% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$19 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$86
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses15 / 11
Open positions6
Markets (closed)26 / 32
History coverage7d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-96%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$63 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $50 +$24 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 10h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 32h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 46h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 85¢ $20 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 46h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $10 46h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 47h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 47h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 6d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 16¢ $52 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.95 · official $86.20 (match) · 50 history records