Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:55:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4259…b365
crypto · 212 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$59 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open −$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized−$52
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses93 / 118
Open positions1
Markets (closed)211 / 212
History coverage17d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 211 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$14
14 days−$39
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Down 38¢ 8¢ $8 $2 −$7 (-80%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $20 +$21 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$11 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$26 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $17 +$16 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $30 +$30 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$10 +85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $24 −$23 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$9 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$13 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $9 −$8 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$15 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$12 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $30 +$27 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $29 +$29 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$14 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$12 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$19 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 −$19 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$11 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$19 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$25 +98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $24 −$24 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$9 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$18 +108%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $19 +$15 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$14 +123%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$5 +100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$7 +240%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$37 +166%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$3 +100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $9 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $11 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $7 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $6 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $6 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -2.1% -11.5% 44% 44% -8.3%
≤30d 211 -7.3% -16.1% 44% 43% -13.1%
≤90d 211 -7.3% -16.1% 44% 43% -13.1%
all 211 -7.3% -16.1% 44% 43% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.1% 43% -13.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.2% 43% -21.4%
15% -31.5% 43% -29.0%
20% -38.2% 40% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.64 · official $1.64 (match) · 484 history records