Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:42:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x425a…c41e other 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$529 (+21%) realized +$531 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%19W / 15L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$88
7 days+$465
14 days+$498
30 days+$498
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$520
sports 17% −$87
crypto 4% +$71
world 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +40.9% +27.5% 57% 57% +12.5%
≤30d 34 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 56% +11.8%
≤90d 34 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 56% +11.8%
all 34 +32.1% +19.5% 56% 56% +11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.5% 56% +11.8%
10% +8.0% 53% +1.1%
15% -2.4% 44% -8.7%
20% -12.0% 35% -17.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +51% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$35 · ×1.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.94 per $1 lost it wins $1.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$348
Realized+$531
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses19 / 15
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)34 / 40
History coverage8d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$90 +873%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $152 +$116 +76%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $153 −$9 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$87 -85%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $101 +$30 +30%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$131 +129%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$55 +54%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +30%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$18 +354%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $70 +$10 +15%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$48 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 2h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 10h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 11h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 27h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $268 27h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $152 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $144 28h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 29h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 29h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $178 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $348.20 · official $348.20 (match) · 80 history records