Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
42 0x425b…a07c other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$145 (+12%) realized +$141 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +31% what you keep after slip
Net edge+31%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$374now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$20
sports 9% +$155
crypto 9% +$7
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +50.6% +36.3% 45% 36% +5.7%
≤30d 11 +50.6% +36.3% 45% 36% +5.7%
≤90d 11 +50.6% +36.3% 45% 36% +5.7%
all 11 +50.6% +36.3% 45% 36% +5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.3% 36% +5.7%
10% +23.2% 27% -4.4%
15% +11.3% 27% -13.7%
20% +0.4% 18% -22.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$32 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$374
Realized+$141
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 77¢ 90¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $403 +$61 +15%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$161 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$22 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $100 +$7 +7%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $26 +$74 +291%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 −$23 -90%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $143 −$143 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $40 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 4h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 16h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 18h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 69¢ $102 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 24h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 24h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 97¢ $68 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 41h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 41h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 42h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 42h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $143 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $373.51 · official $373.54 (match) · 24 history records