Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x425e…7993 crypto 544 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$31,648 (+24%) realized +$31,646 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate67%366W / 177L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day21.7pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$994now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 116d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$9,865
politics 5% $0
world 3% −$23
other 1% +$8
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -1.2% -10.6% 58% 55% -11.4%
≤30d 203 +7.8% -2.5% 64% 59% -7.2%
≤90d 534 +19.1% +7.8% 67% 57% -5.2%
all 543 +20.1% +8.7% 67% 57% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 57% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 52% -12.0%
15% -11.2% 44% -20.5%
20% -19.9% 30% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +18% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$79 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$994
Realized+$31,646
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses366 / 177
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)543 / 544
History coverage116d ⚠
Avg bet$241
Trades / day21.7
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $992 $994 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 20 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 20 $102 +$48 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 20 $45 −$43 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 20 $241 −$41 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $22 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 20 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $41 +$59 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$143 +254%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $58 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $138 +$62 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 20 $35 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $123 −$73 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 20 $67 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $30 −$29 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$55 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 18 $106 +$144 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$12 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $34 −$33 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $166 −$160 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $193 +$77 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $390 −$378 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $998 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $1,420 −$30 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $71 +$40 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$42 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $160 −$40 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $86 +$64 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $79 +$21 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $123 −$120 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $123 −$123 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $139 −$30 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $145 −$45 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $103 +$27 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $80 +$20 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $83 +$28 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$50 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $117 +$33 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $129 +$21 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $131 −$129 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $72 +$78 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 14 $191 −$41 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$6 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $0 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $0 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $12 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $102 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $994.50 · official $994.50 (match) · 3500 history records