Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:09:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x425e…ecfa
sports · 62 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$290 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$290 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized+$290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses40 / 22
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage8d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 62 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$282
14 days+$290
30 days+$290
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? No 82¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
France leading at halftime? No 15¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
CD Castellón leading at halftime? No 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
CD Castellón vs. UD Almería: Draw at halftime? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $38 +$4 +10%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +91%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $76 +$12 +16%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $38 +$21 +55%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $38 −$1 -2%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $62 +$6 +10%
Spread: FF Jaro (-1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 +121%
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 −$2 -6%
Waterford FC vs. Sligo Rovers FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $9 +$2 +18%
Will Difaâ Hassani El Jadida win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $38 +$6 +16%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $38 +$3 +7%
Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $16 +$3 +22%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $15 +$2 +11%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $15 −$1 -9%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $15 +$23 +151%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $15 +$8 +51%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $16 +$4 +28%
Exact Score: Orebro SK 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -76%
Georgia vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $31 +$17 +56%
Georgia vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $15 +$7 +47%
Georgia vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $16 +$2 +12%
Georgia vs. Greece: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $16 +$1 +9%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $25 +$21 +83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $16 +$5 +34%
Will Norway vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 09 $16 +$3 +20%
Spread: Tajikistan (-1.5) Jun 09 $16 +$17 +111%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $16 +$51 +331%
Spread: Philippines (-2.5) Jun 09 $15 −$7 -46%
Spread: Philippines (-1.5) Jun 09 $15 +$9 +56%
Liverpool Montevideo vs. Cerro Largo FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $2 −$1 -48%
Liverpool Montevideo leading at halftime? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Liverpool Montevideo win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $15 −$2 -10%
Spread: Liverpool Montevideo (-1.5) Jun 08 $16 −$1 -6%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $18 +$60 +332%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Northern Ireland? Jun 08 $5 +$1 +22%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 08 $16 −$7 -47%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $15 −$6 -39%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $16 +$7 +44%
France leading at halftime? Jun 08 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 07 $15 +$8 +51%
Will CA Chaco For Ever vs. Ferro Carril Oeste end in a draw? Jun 07 $15 +$12 +76%
Will CR Brasil win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$7 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$4 -29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $16 −$2 -11%
Greece vs. Italy: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $16 +$4 +28%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $15 +$6 +42%
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Tegevajaro Miyazaki vs. Ventforet Kōfu end in a draw? Jun 06 $16 +$6 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$266
other 43% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 92¢ $42 38m
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $38 39m
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 46¢ $0 1h
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 47¢ $10 1h
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 24¢ $5 1h
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 86¢ $1 1h
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 86¢ $41 1h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 74¢ $58 1h
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 77¢ $38 1h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $23 2h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $9 2h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 40¢ $5 2h
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 67¢ $46 2h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $38 2h
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $38 2h
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 54¢ $38 2h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $0 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $7 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 41¢ $5 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $13 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $3 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $1 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $34 3h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 39¢ $39 4h
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 28¢ $28 4h
Spread: FF Jaro (-1.5) SELL FF Jaro 14¢ $1 12h
Spread: FF Jaro (-1.5) BUY FF Jaro 6¢ $0 12h
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 56¢ $0 30h
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 56¢ $30 30h
Will Shelbourne FC win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +32.4% +19.8% 67% 58% +17.5%
≤30d 62 +25.9% +13.9% 65% 56% +13.1%
≤90d 62 +25.9% +13.9% 65% 56% +13.1%
all 62 +25.9% +13.9% 65% 56% +13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.9% 56% +13.1%
10% ← realistic here +3.0% 42% +2.3%
15% -6.9% 34% -7.6%
20% -16.0% 24% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.00 · official $6.00 (match) · 167 history records