Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:33:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
42 0x4262…abaa other 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 118d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,344 (+3%) realized +$4,283 · open +$61
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate79%401W / 105L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$248per market
Trades / day25.7pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$4,877now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$527
14 days+$316
30 days+$1,385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$2,745
other 28% +$1,153
world 23% +$48
sports 3% +$47
economics 2% +$86
culture 2% +$88
tech 2% −$131
crypto 1% +$23
finance 1% +$74
weather 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 -6.6% -15.5% 72% 34% -4.0%
≤30d 110 +5.7% -4.4% 75% 38% -5.5%
≤90d 330 +3.3% -6.5% 77% 29% -6.9%
all 506 +5.9% -4.2% 79% 31% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.2% 31% -6.7%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 17% -15.6%
15% -21.7% 9% -23.8%
20% -29.4% 6% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$41 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$4,877
Realized+$4,283
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses401 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions41
Markets (closed)506 / 546
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$248
Trades / day25.7
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 506 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Enzo Maresca be the next manager of Manchester City FC? Yes 99¢ 98¢ $1,043 $1,037 −$6 (-1%)
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? Yes 84¢ 95¢ $801 $898 +$98 (+12%)
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027? No 71¢ 74¢ $439 $459 +$20 (+5%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $297 $300 +$3 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 42¢ 44¢ $251 $258 +$7 (+3%)
Will Massimiliano Allegri be the next manager of SSC Napoli? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $226 $221 −$5 (-2%)
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? No 92¢ 97¢ $184 $193 +$10 (+5%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $158 $145 −$13 (-8%)
Will Rafael Grossi be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No 44¢ 44¢ $137 $138 +$1 (+1%)
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 59¢ 61¢ $119 $122 +$3 (+2%)
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 98¢ $93 $107 +$14 (+16%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? No 64¢ 64¢ $96 $95 −$1 (-1%)
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $93 $93 +$0 (+0%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes 40¢ 42¢ $88 $92 +$4 (+4%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 57¢ 61¢ $85 $92 +$6 (+7%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 86¢ 91¢ $86 $91 +$5 (+6%)
Will Curaçao concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 82¢ 70¢ $82 $70 −$12 (-14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $24 $47 +$23 (+97%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $44 $42 −$2 (-4%)
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? No 48¢ 50¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $32 $38 +$6 (+18%)
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $34 $37 +$3 (+9%)
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30? No 90¢ 100¢ $30 $34 +$3 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $39 −$20 -53%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $656 −$27 -4%
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 19 $227 −$13 -6%
Will Ben Midgley win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary electi Jun 19 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary ele Jun 19 $652 +$84 +13%
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio Jun 19 $50 −$49 -100%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $168 +$18 +11%
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 18 $105 +$10 +10%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $35 +$10 +30%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-2 Jun 18 $203 −$2 -1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $32 −$3 -9%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 17 $39 +$11 +29%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $32 +$5 +16%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $2,398 +$490 +20%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $287 +$3 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$3 +13%
Will Hakeem Jeffries win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Pri Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $438 +$2 +0%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $76 +$4 +6%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $173 +$2 +1%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +4%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $100 +$2 +2%
Will Burt Jones win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary elect Jun 17 $111 −$90 -81%
Will Rick Jackson win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican primary ele Jun 17 $636 +$54 +9%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of AC Milan? Jun 16 $20 +$1 +6%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $33 +$7 +22%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $695 +$7 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $570 +$55 +10%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$2 +5%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +75%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $89 −$8 -9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $125 +$3 +2%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $38 +$2 +5%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$12 +57%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +11%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $220 +$10 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $18 +$2 +10%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $73 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $20 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 57¢ $86 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 20¢ $16 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $1 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 47¢ $161 1h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $9 4h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 44¢ $154 4h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $56 4h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 6h
Another GTA VI trailer released by June 30? BUY Yes 57¢ $33 7h
Will Nirav Shah win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary electio BUY Yes $3 12h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 84¢ $251 21h
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY Yes 85¢ $85 21h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 93¢ $186 26h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $172 26h
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $34 28h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 80¢ $24 28h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 73¢ $8 29h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 73¢ $14 29h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 79¢ $158 30h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $21 31h
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? SELL Yes 83¢ $50 31h
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $7 33h
Will Yu Deng win the 2026 Fields Medal? BUY No 47¢ $24 33h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 34h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 34h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $12 34h
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? BUY Yes 79¢ $24 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,876.92 · official $4,876.92 (match) · 3500 history records