Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:24:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4263…7aec other 181 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-5%) realized −$238 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%50W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Kalshi-fit2%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$366
14 days−$341
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$253
economics 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 20% -52.5%
≤30d 22 -2.8% -12.1% 73% 41% -14.5%
≤90d 61 -4.6% -13.7% 48% 31% -14.5%
all 179 -12.9% -21.2% 28% 21% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 21% -14.7%
10% -28.8% 16% -22.8%
15% -35.6% 13% -30.3%
20% -41.9% 13% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$6 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$238
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses50 / 129
Open positions2
Markets (closed)179 / 181
History coverage154d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit2%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? No 63¢ 64¢ $101 $103 +$2 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Yes 23¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +74%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $151 −$83 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $306 −$304 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $205 +$15 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $102 +$53 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $302 +$18 +6%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $194 +$40 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $201 +$14 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $201 +$26 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $202 +$51 +25%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $375 −$36 -10%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $340 +$24 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $102 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $184 +$27 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 21 $175 +$10 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $71 +$2 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $124 −$52 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 14 $106 +$18 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 06 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $2 −$16 -788%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $7 +$3 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $7 +$1 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 29 $7 −$3 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 15 $2 −$2 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $2 +$2 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $2 +$4 +184%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $3 −$3 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 +$15 +733%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 03 $2 −$2 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $2 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 29 $2 −$1 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $2 −$1 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $1 7m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $71 8m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $28 8m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $103 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $101 16h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $65 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL No 34¢ $2 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $151 4d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $7 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $11 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $8 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $74 6d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $201 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $37 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $16 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $14 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $46 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $5 7d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $73 7d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $103 9d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $102 9d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $302 10d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $155 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $29 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 12d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $5 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.87 · official $103.87 (match) · 434 history records