Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4264…1706
weather · 1297 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$468 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$463 · open −$20
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized−$463
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses725 / 563
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1288 / 1297
History coverage124d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day17.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 9 History 1288 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$104
14 days−$49
30 days+$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? Yes 75¢ 99¢ $23 $31 +$8 (+33%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Yes 76¢ 99¢ $19 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $23 $23 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Yes 76¢ 100¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Yes 73¢ 57¢ $23 $18 −$5 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Yes 78¢ 99¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+27%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? Yes 78¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Yes 74¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 76¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 +$9 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $24 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $24 +$8 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? Jun 14 $7 +$2 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$7 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$7 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 +$9 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$23 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 13 $13 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$5 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$6 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$5 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$5 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$3 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$4 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$5 +33%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $30 −$17 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 +$6 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $4 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $16 +$5 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$6 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 92% −$343
crypto 6% −$50
other 1% −$48
world 1% −$23
sports 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 74¢ $24 22m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY Yes 73¢ $24 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 75¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 78¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 78¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 76¢ $24 13h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $24 14h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 15h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $8 16h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY Yes 74¢ $24 19h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $24 19h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $24 22h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on June 13? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 23h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY Yes 78¢ $6 24h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 71¢ $24 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 76¢ $3 27h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 78¢ $13 34h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY Yes 75¢ $16 38h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 39h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? BUY Yes 78¢ $7 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 41h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $16 43h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 72¢ $16 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 +9.0% -1.3% 83% 83% -1.0%
≤30d 206 -0.8% -10.3% 76% 75% -8.1%
≤90d 1153 -14.0% -22.2% 56% 48% -13.6%
all 1288 -14.6% -22.7% 56% 45% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 45% -14.1%
10% -30.1% 36% -22.4%
15% -36.9% 16% -29.9%
20% -43.1% 4% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $128.23 · official $127.71 (match) · 3329 history records