Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4265…3741 crypto 664 markets active 0h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,727 (-6%) realized −$1,734 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%385W / 259L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day43.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$575now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$39
7 days+$119
14 days+$159
30 days−$681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$395
sports 8% −$457
other 7% +$18
world 6% −$1,219
politics 1% +$48
tech 1% +$15
weather 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +0.7% -8.9% 60% 56% -1.0%
≤30d 74 -3.7% -12.8% 51% 49% -20.0%
≤90d 644 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 55% -15.5%
all 644 +3.9% -6.0% 60% 55% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 55% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 45% -23.6%
15% -23.2% 36% -31.0%
20% -30.7% 27% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$34 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$575
Realized−$1,734
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses385 / 259
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions15
Markets (closed)644 / 664
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$46
Trades / day43.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 644 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 90¢ $87 $90 +$2 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $81 $82 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $34 $59 +$25 (+74%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $54 $58 +$4 (+7%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 51¢ 50¢ $51 $50 −$2 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-4%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 57¢ 60¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 5¢ $36 $22 −$14 (-39%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Yes 43¢ 42¢ $22 $21 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-18%)
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists Yes 21¢ 26¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $12 −$10 -84%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 25 $17 +$23 +138%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $64 +$36 +58%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 23 $58 −$58 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $88 +$12 +14%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $67 +$33 +50%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $16 +$34 +206%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $66 +$34 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $62 +$38 +61%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 +$36 +56%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $63 +$37 +59%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $86 −$86 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $52 +$48 +92%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $88 +$12 +14%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$40 +67%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 −$18 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $72 +$28 +40%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $12 +$20 +163%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $38 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 02 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $107 +$160 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jannik Sinner vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET May 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $32 −$32 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Raphael Collignon vs Ben Shelton May 29 $127 −$127 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 29 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 29 $10 +$19 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET May 29 $9 +$14 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 29 $20 +$20 +100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 29 $51 +$39 +77%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 29 $77 +$23 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $12 +$8 +70%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $174 +$26 +15%
Roland Garros ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Andrey Rublev May 27 $60 −$34 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET May 27 $104 −$96 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 27 $104 −$86 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 51¢ $51 14m
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $22 1h
Yan Diomandé: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $83 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will England win on 2026-06- BUY 23¢ $51 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 3¢ $21 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26 BUY 3¢ $21 1h
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 11h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $76 16h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 16h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 7¢ $51 25h
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 25h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $40 42h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $14 43h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $18 45h
Jonathan David: 1+ goals BUY Yes 27¢ $5 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $0 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $44 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $11 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 87¢ $26 2d
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $17 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 2d
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 80¢ $80 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $575.22 · official $665.22 · 3500 history records