Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:20:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

42 0x4265…851f other 20 markets active 2d ago coverage 26d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$1,025 (-9%) realized −$1,991 · open +$966

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip

Net edge-13%after slip

Net WR28%break-even

Win rate28%5W / 13L

Whale WR20%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$587per market

Trades / day14.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$3,316now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days+$179

14 days−$467

30 days−$2,056

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +28%

net ROI/market (all)-1.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+84.2%	+66.7%	60%	60%	-5.1%
≤30d	18	+9.0%	-1.4%	28%	28%	-29.4%
≤90d	18	+9.0%	-1.4%	28%	28%	-29.4%
all	18	+9.0%	-1.4%	28%	28%	-29.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover14.5 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-1.4%	28%	-29.4%
10% ← realistic here	-10.8%	28%	-36.2%
15%	-19.4%	22%	-42.3%
20%	-27.3%	22%	-48.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 73% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 20% (≥$608) big bets weaker

Persistence

early -6% → late +24% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

15.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$778 vs −$458 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.65 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage

Net worth$3,316

Realized−$1,991

Unrealized+$966

Win rate (resolved)28%

Wins / losses5 / 13

Whale WR (big bets)20%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage26d

Avg bet$587

Trades / day14.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	40¢	56¢	$1,270	$1,816	+$546 (+43%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	27¢	38¢	$1,080	$1,500	+$420 (+39%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$584	+$1,789	+306%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 16	$95	+$124	+131%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Jun 14	$930	−$835	-90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$1,612	−$1,606	-100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	Jun 12	$407	+$708	+174%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$695	+$203	+29%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 09	$1,575	−$896	-57%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 07	$390	−$315	-81%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Jun 07	$608	−$604	-99%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 05	$207	+$1,068	+515%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 05	$121	−$102	-84%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?	Jun 04	$215	−$132	-61%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	May 29	$267	−$63	-23%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	May 28	$428	−$418	-98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	May 28	$231	−$5	-2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	May 26	$460	−$455	-99%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	May 26	$479	−$459	-96%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	May 22	$58	−$58	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$10	47h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	44¢	$17	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$18	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$9	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$72	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	43¢	$265	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	42¢	$72	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	42¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	41¢	$59	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$30	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	40¢	$247	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	39¢	$139	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	37¢	$7	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	37¢	$0	2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	37¢	$79	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$254	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$8	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$6	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$7	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$2	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$8	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$14	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$4	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$3	2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$5	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,315.74 · official $3,412.49 · 381 history records