Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:06:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4268…198c world 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%29W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$6
other 27% −$1
politics 17% $0
sports 10% +$31
weather 2% −$42
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 56% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 69 -2.0% -11.4% 41% 1% -9.8%
all 75 +0.7% -8.9% 39% 3% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 3% -10.1%
10% -17.6% 1% -18.7%
15% -25.6% 1% -26.6%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses29 / 46
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)75 / 77
History coverage490d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No 24¢ 13¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $51 $0 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $26 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $26 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $16 $0 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $57 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $51 −$7 -13%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 24 $35 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $63 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $66 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $163 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $69 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $31 $0 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $34 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $74 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $32 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will George Tuță be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Apr 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $36 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 10 $2 $0 -15%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $35 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 09 $31 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $26 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $23 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $3 29h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $26 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 44h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 73¢ $26 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 73¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $26 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $23 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $9 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $16 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $7 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $19 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $5 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $20 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $27 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $27 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $25 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $25 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $20 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $29 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $26 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.53 · official $26.04 (match) · 270 history records