Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4268…ccb4 crypto 231 markets active 3d ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (271 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$3,180 (+66%) realized +$3,180 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%58W / 173L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day271.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,870
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (271 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 204 +5.8% -4.3% 25% 24% +32.2%
≤30d 231 +12.1% +1.5% 25% 24% +44.0%
≤90d 231 +12.1% +1.5% 25% 24% +44.0%
all 231 +12.1% +1.5% 25% 24% +44.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover271.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.5% 24% +44.0%
10% ← realistic here -8.2% 24% +30.2%
15% -17.1% 23% +17.6%
20% -25.2% 23% +6.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$16 · ×6.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,180
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses58 / 173
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage6d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day271.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $40 +$90 +222%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$104 +238%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $44 +$51 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $83 +$140 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$36 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$146 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$35 +346%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$10 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $37 +$135 +365%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$22 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$23 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$28 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$64 +325%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$62 +484%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $8 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $13 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1833 history records