Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4269…0924 politics 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%2W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$898per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$85
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$115
other 7% −$2
economics 3% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 -1.8% -11.2% 18% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 29 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
all 29 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$930) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses2 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage72d
Avg bet$898
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? No 100¢ 100¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $818 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $430 −$82 -19%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $900 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $902 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $901 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,811 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $910 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $913 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1,851 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $915 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $1,853 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $916 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $921 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $920 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $923 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 04 $925 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $782 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $927 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $936 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 18 $937 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $930 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $39 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $817 7d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $818 8d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $347 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $430 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $899 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $900 13d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $899 14d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $900 16d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $901 17d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $902 18d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $900 22d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $901 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $902 23d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $904 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $904 26d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $905 27d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $909 28d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $910 29d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $906 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $907 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $911 32d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $912 33d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $911 35d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $912 35d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $911 37d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $913 37d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $914 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.80 · official $38.80 (match) · 107 history records