Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:02:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4269…d242 other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 603d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-0%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate20%10W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 77% −$14
politics 16% −$9
other 4% −$13
sports 1% −$29
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.5% -39.8% 0% 0% -36.7%
≤30d 14 -14.4% -22.6% 7% 0% -14.1%
≤90d 37 -12.3% -20.6% 22% 14% -12.4%
all 50 -9.2% -17.9% 20% 10% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 10% -9.9%
10% -25.7% 10% -18.5%
15% -32.9% 6% -26.4%
20% -39.5% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

603d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses10 / 40
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage603d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $8 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $12 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me May 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $114 $0 -0%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $118 $0 -0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 12 $7 +$4 +60%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $56 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $115 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $61 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $12 −$12 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $7 +$5 +72%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $12 +$3 +29%
UFC Fight Night: Jose Delano vs. Robert Ruchala (Featherweight, Prelim Apr 06 $11 +$4 +34%
Celtics vs. Heat Apr 03 $22 +$11 +52%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 03 $47 +$1 +1%
Based FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $24 $0 +0%
Akron Zips vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Mar 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 06 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Mar 05 $4 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 01 $13,530 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $27 −$1 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 10 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 12 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $18 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $15 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $330 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $788 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 26 $1,186 −$4 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 24 $309 −$2 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $10 4d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $9 5d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $9 5d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 47¢ $8 6d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 7d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 10d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 11d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $10 11d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 12d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $12 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $37 27d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $53 28d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $53 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $56 28d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $56 28d
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago Cubs 51¢ $8 30d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $63 34d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $63 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.03 · official $30.03 (match) · 253 history records