Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:35:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x426a…56d3 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$42 (+11%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 67% -4.6%
≤30d 9 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 67% -4.6%
≤90d 9 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 67% -4.6%
all 9 +9.7% -0.7% 67% 67% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 67% -4.6%
10% -10.2% 56% -13.7%
15% -18.9% 33% -22.1%
20% -26.8% 33% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$27 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $65 +$33 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 24 $51 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $82 −$19 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$22 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$5 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records