Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x426b…6cbf other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 24d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$242 (+69%) realized +$242 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 24d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$249
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +48.7% +34.5% 100% 100% +45.9%
≤30d 5 +27.9% +15.7% 80% 80% +55.0%
≤90d 5 +27.9% +15.7% 80% 80% +55.0%
all 5 +27.9% +15.7% 80% 80% +55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.7% 80% +55.0%
10% +4.7% 80% +40.2%
15% -5.5% 40% +26.6%
20% -14.7% 40% +14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 96% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$4 · ×16.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×67.0 per $1 lost it wins $67.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$242
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage24d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $32 +$9 +29%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $149 +$101 +68%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $159 +$141 +89%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $5 +$1 +30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $32 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $100 26h
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 24d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 24d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 24d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 24d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 53¢ $159 24d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 24d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.73 (match) · 14 history records