Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:56:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
42 0x426b…6bb8 crypto 40 markets active 20h ago coverage 522d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$6 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$46
14 days−$34
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 30% +$18
politics 25% −$3
world 20% +$12
crypto 12% −$24
weather 7% +$14
other 5% −$16
economics 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -53.5% -58.0% 20% 20% -62.0%
≤30d 6 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 33% -40.2%
≤90d 6 -34.8% -41.0% 33% 33% -40.2%
all 39 +2.5% -7.2% 26% 18% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.2% 18% -9.9%
10% -16.1% 18% -18.5%
15% -24.2% 18% -26.4%
20% -31.6% 15% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

522d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage522d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Yes 37¢ 62¢ $9 $16 +$6 (+68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $14 +$19 +132%
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026? Jun 10 $21 +$12 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 28? Mar 03 $26 +$13 +47%
Avalanche vs. Utah Feb 26 $27 +$23 +85%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Feb 25 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on February 21? Feb 23 $8 +$8 +100%
Hawks vs. 76ers Feb 21 $21 +$33 +156%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 Feb 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16? Feb 17 $2 +$5 +233%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 28 $195 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Nov 06 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? Oct 03 $9 $0 -4%
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. Oct 03 $16 $0 -2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 03 $24 −$1 -2%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 26 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3,800 September 22-28? Sep 26 $21 −$9 -43%
Will USA win the 2025 Ryder Cup? Sep 24 $7 $0 -2%
Will Solana dip to $230 September 15-21? Sep 20 $20 −$5 -26%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Sep 19 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 16 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the Texas Rangers win the AL West Division? Apr 16 $6 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 18? Apr 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the New Democratic Party win the Nunavut seat in the next Canadia Apr 16 $17 $0 -2%
US recession in 2025? Apr 15 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference? Apr 14 $20 $0 -2%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 13 $14 $0 -3%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Apr 07 $7 $0 -2%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next elec Mar 25 $9 $0 -3%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Jan 15 $9 −$1 -6%
Yoon arrested by January 31? Jan 14 $3 $0 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Jan 10 $2 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 20h
Will Ethereum reach $1,850 on June 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 45h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $19 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY No 71¢ $27 6d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 7d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on February 28? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 109d
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 28, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $21 110d
Avalanche vs. Utah BUY Avalanche 54¢ $27 112d
Kings vs. Grizzlies BUY Grizzlies 62¢ $17 113d
Ethereum Up or Down on February 21? BUY Up 50¢ $8 116d
Hawks vs. 76ers BUY Hawks 39¢ $21 118d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026 BUY Yes 50¢ $15 120d
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on February 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 122d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $195 170d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $195 170d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $195 170d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $195 170d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? SELL No 100¢ $195 170d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $195 171d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 230d
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? BUY No 100¢ $14 230d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 256d
Will the Government shutdown end October 15+? BUY Yes 48¢ $9 256d
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. SELL Procházka 64¢ $15 256d
Procházka vs. Rountree Jr. BUY Procházka 65¢ $16 257d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? SELL Yes 52¢ $23 257d
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 257d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands SELL Yes 60¢ $21 264d
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands BUY Yes 60¢ $21 264d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.75 · official $15.75 (match) · 85 history records