Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
42 0x426d…b976 other 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$80 (+3%) realized +$89 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$312now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$298
14 days−$50
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$274
sports 28% +$202
world 24% −$15
finance 12% +$223
crypto 3% −$58
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-18.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +59.5% +44.3% 100% 100% +44.3%
≤30d 7 +4.2% -5.7% 57% 57% +0.6%
≤90d 32 -10.1% -18.6% 41% 38% -5.7%
all 32 -10.1% -18.6% 41% 38% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.6% 38% -5.7%
10% -26.4% 38% -14.8%
15% -33.5% 38% -23.0%
20% -40.1% 28% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -70% → late +50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$42 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$312
Realized+$89
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions6
Markets (closed)32 / 38
History coverage82d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $80 $86 +$6 (+7%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 16¢ 99¢ $10 $62 +$52 (+518%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 30¢ 12¢ $35 $15 −$20 (-58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 29¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $501 +$298 +60%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $100 −$98 -97%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $256 −$250 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $204 +$154 +76%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $15 +$14 +90%
Anastasios Douvikas: Anytime Goalscorer May 25 $8 +$9 +105%
Christopher Nkunku: Anytime Goalscorer May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? May 14 $20 +$8 +42%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? May 05 $12 +$7 +60%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $57 −$57 -100%
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score May 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 May 03 $13 −$13 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? May 02 $50 +$27 +55%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 02 $50 +$49 +97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 27 $88 +$43 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $10 +$77 +769%
Will Trump say "Fake news" during events with Rutte? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? Apr 08 $50 −$48 -95%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 08 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? Apr 08 $150 +$188 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $102 −$102 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $40 +$3 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Apr 02 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Mar 28 $10 +$5 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 18m
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 24m
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $501 29h
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $100 9d
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $256 9d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 29¢ $46 23d
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 25d
Christopher Nkunku: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 45¢ $5 25d
Anastasios Douvikas: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 48¢ $8 25d
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 70¢ $20 41d
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 62¢ $12 45d
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 82¢ $57 45d
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $20 45d
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $13 45d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? BUY No 56¢ $204 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $88 60d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? BUY No 63¢ $25 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 69d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 69d
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 51¢ $50 69d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 69d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? BUY No 64¢ $50 69d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 69d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $50 69d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? BUY No 49¢ $37 69d
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $338 70d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? BUY No 39¢ $10 71d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 16¢ $10 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $311.61 · official $311.24 (match) · 59 history records