Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:12:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

42 0x426d…6885 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$2,205 (+7%) realized +$2,300 · open −$95

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate50%12W / 12L

Whale WR50%big bets

Drawdown73%max

Avg bet$1,145per market

Trades / day7.8pace

Fees−$206est.

Kalshi-fit41%portable

Net worth$2,502now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)-1.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+9.0%	-1.4%	50%	42%	-2.7%
≤30d	24	+9.0%	-1.4%	50%	42%	-2.7%
≤90d	24	+9.0%	-1.4%	50%	42%	-2.7%
all	24	+9.0%	-1.4%	50%	42%	-2.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-1.4%	42%	-2.7%
10%	-10.8%	38%	-12.0%
15%	-19.5%	33%	-20.5%
20%	-27.4%	29%	-28.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 29% · top 2 49% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

17% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 50% (≥$1,871) neutral

Persistence

early +4% → late +14% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$506 vs −$327 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$2,502

Realized+$2,300

Unrealized−$95

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses12 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)50%

Est. fees paid−$206

Open positions3

Markets (closed)24 / 27

History coverage6d

Avg bet$1,145

Trades / day7.8

Drawdown73%

Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	Over	29¢	28¢	$1,306	$1,283	−$23 (-2%)
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5	Over	49¢	46¢	$891	$827	−$64 (-7%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	Over	16¢	16¢	$400	$392	−$8 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$2,055	−$302	-15%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5	Jun 25	$206	+$104	+50%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	Jun 25	$360	+$237	+66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$1,364	+$1,259	+92%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	Jun 24	$579	−$191	-33%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	Jun 24	$257	−$130	-51%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$511	−$212	-42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$629	−$100	-16%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$1,871	−$81	-4%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$4,291	−$604	-14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$1,306	+$1,736	+133%
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$2,482	+$73	+3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$2,054	+$428	+21%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 22	$258	−$258	-100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$103	−$39	-38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,310	−$129	-10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$2,357	+$225	+10%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$1,726	+$631	+37%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 21	$1,780	−$1,780	-100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,656	+$563	+34%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$438	+$300	+68%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$167	+$266	+159%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$398	+$254	+64%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	29¢	$1,341	1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	16¢	$412	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5	SELL Over	32¢	$1,753	1h
Japan vs. Sweden: Japan O/U 1.5	BUY Over	49¢	$909	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5	SELL Over	15¢	$310	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	35¢	$597	1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5	BUY Over	36¢	$2,055	18h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	20¢	$360	18h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5	BUY Over	9¢	$206	18h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$388	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	SELL Yes	24¢	$388	26h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	51¢	$976	26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	SELL Over	11¢	$127	26h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	24¢	$299	26h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$579	27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	37¢	$529	27h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	42¢	$629	38h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	21¢	$257	38h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	39¢	$511	38h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	67¢	$1,789	2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1,871	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	73¢	$3,687	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$4,291	2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$1,306	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	95¢	$2,555	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	91¢	$2,482	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	83¢	$2,482	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	67¢	$2,054	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	8¢	$64	4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,502.16 · official $2,502.62 (match) · 54 history records