Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:56:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4270…6f3e crypto 132 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$135 (+4%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate86%113W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day50.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 39% -15.0%
≤30d 131 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 39% -15.0%
≤90d 131 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 39% -15.0%
all 131 +0.8% -8.8% 86% 39% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 39% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 17% -23.1%
15% -25.5% 9% -30.5%
20% -32.8% 6% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$38 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses113 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage3d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day50.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET Down 66¢ 72¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $85 −$85 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 23 $82 +$10 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $78 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $76 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $64 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 23 $63 +$10 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 23 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 23 $57 +$11 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 23 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 23 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $227 −$227 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $137 +$32 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 23 $222 +$18 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $209 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 23 $200 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $148 +$74 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $164 +$19 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $141 +$37 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $22 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $18 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $16 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 23 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 23 $19 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 23 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 23 $14 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $11 +$2 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $85 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $63 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $91 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $141 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $137 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $227 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $222 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $209 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $200 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $148 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $164 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $141 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $18 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $17 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.42 · official $5.42 (match) · 329 history records