Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:01:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4270…6168
sports · 626 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$680 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$574 · open −$63
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$643
Realized+$574
Unrealized−$63
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses311 / 288
Est. fees paid−$94
Open positions27
Markets (closed)599 / 626
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day784.0
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 27 History 599 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$198
7 days+$574
14 days+$574
30 days+$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 44¢ 100¢ $90 $202 +$112 (+125%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? No 55¢ 100¢ $35 $64 +$29 (+81%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Gen.G 81¢ 80¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? No 79¢ 84¢ $45 $47 +$3 (+6%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Australia 63¢ 56¢ $47 $41 −$5 (-11%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 84¢ 86¢ $33 $33 +$1 (+2%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner T1 19¢ 20¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+8%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 76¢ $15 $15 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Jordan (-2.5) Austria 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Germany 99¢ 99¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 80¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? No 68¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+47%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? No 21¢ 20¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal leading at halftime? No 43¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Over 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+4%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Gen.G 78¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Spread: Cabo Verde (-2.5) Spain 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) IR Iran 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 31¢ 30¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Over 16¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-18%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 46¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Kiwoom Heroes 55¢ 42¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$4 +35%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $45 +$2 +4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 +$4 +25%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$33 +164%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $67 −$33 -49%
Spread: Australia (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $15 −$2 -13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$13 +132%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 −$8 -34%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $15 −$1 -8%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $10 −$4 -37%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +27%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $7 −$2 -22%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$2 +26%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 14 $14 −$6 -40%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +34%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 14 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +70%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Jun 14 $8 −$1 -17%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 14 $10 +$4 +39%
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 14 $15 −$3 -21%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 14 $5 +$12 +250%
Spread: Spurs (-21.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-5.5) Jun 14 $16 +$3 +21%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 14 $20 $0 +2%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $14 +$8 +59%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 72% −$110
crypto 20% +$763
other 8% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $5 12m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 94¢ $5 12m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 92¢ $5 12m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 10¢ $5 17m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 25¢ $5 19m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 20m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $5 21m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $5 21m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 82¢ $5 21m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $5 21m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 77¢ $5 21m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 43¢ $2 22m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 58¢ $2 23m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $5 24m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $5 24m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 27¢ $5 25m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 30¢ $5 25m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 67¢ $5 29m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $5 44m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $5 50m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 69¢ $5 51m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 64¢ $5 54m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 60¢ $5 56m
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 60¢ $5 59m
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 599 +9.4% -1.1% 52% 41% -4.2%
≤30d 599 +9.4% -1.1% 52% 41% -4.2%
≤90d 599 +9.4% -1.1% 52% 41% -4.2%
all 599 +9.4% -1.1% 52% 41% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover784.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 41% -4.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.5% 32% -13.3%
15% -19.2% 25% -21.7%
20% -27.1% 21% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $643.06 · official $643.07 (match) · 3500 history records