Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4273…b9a6 crypto 147 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-2%) realized −$55 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate63%91W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$40
14 days−$40
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$112
sports 5% +$71
other 1% −$10
tech 0% −$3
world 0% +$3
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -2.7% -12.0% 65% 51% -10.8%
≤30d 135 -2.7% -12.0% 65% 51% -10.8%
≤90d 135 -2.7% -12.0% 65% 51% -10.8%
all 145 -3.8% -13.0% 63% 50% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 50% -11.3%
10% -21.3% 35% -19.8%
15% -28.9% 19% -27.5%
20% -35.9% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$55
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses91 / 54
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)145 / 147
History coverage130d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Down 67¢ 72¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 87¢ 86¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $24 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$11 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$8 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $59 +$15 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$12 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$12 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$12 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $27 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$7 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$8 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $112 −$94 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $103 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $152 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$6 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $3 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $73 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $50 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $8 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 26m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.83 · official $13.47 · 789 history records