Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x427c…9517 sports 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$229 (-7%) realized −$237 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%28W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$75
7 days−$1,575
14 days−$1,575
30 days−$1,575
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$178
other 3% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -79.2% -81.2% 7% 7% -87.5%
≤30d 42 -79.2% -81.2% 7% 7% -87.5%
≤90d 42 -79.2% -81.2% 7% 7% -87.5%
all 68 -7.6% -16.4% 41% 41% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 41% -15.8%
10% -24.4% 41% -23.8%
15% -31.7% 37% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 32% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -86% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$45 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$237
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses28 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage230d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 31¢ 38¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+24%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $59 −$58 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$18 -59%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 +$41 +134%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $20 $0 -1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$33 +65%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$40 +197%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$19 -93%
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -70%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FaZe (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $72 −$72 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs PARIVISION - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca G Jun 14 $120 −$120 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO5) Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs NIP (BO3) Jun 14 $200 −$200 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group St Feb 16 $170 +$85 +50%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 15 $20 +$27 +133%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Grou Feb 14 $100 +$47 +47%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Jan 28 $80 +$266 +333%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO5) - BLAST Bounty Playof Jan 25 $140 +$125 +89%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Jan 25 $153 +$56 +37%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $80 +$110 +138%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $60 +$84 +139%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 20¢ $24 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 20¢ $4 22h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $31 23h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 9¢ $13 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 68¢ $60 24h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $12 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 24h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 24h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 24h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 24h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 32h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 32h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $20 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $61 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 4¢ $1 4d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 4d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 4d
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) BUY Natus Vincere 39¢ $20 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 33¢ $20 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $20 4d
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 2¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag BUY PARIVISION 28¢ $100 122d
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Astralis (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY FaZe 41¢ $100 122d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.55 · official $67.55 (match) · 161 history records