Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x427f…19ed
crypto · 44 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$39 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$84 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$4
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses28 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)38 / 44
History coverage1d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day216.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 6 History 38 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$84
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Over 14¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+33%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 94¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$11 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $68 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $108 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$14 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $52 +$18 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $36 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$8 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 14 $30 −$4 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$92
other 1% −$9
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $10 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $54 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $6 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 31m
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 14¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 37m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 50% -1.8%
≤30d 38 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 50% -1.8%
≤90d 38 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 50% -1.8%
all 38 -3.0% -12.3% 74% 50% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover216.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 50% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 26% -11.2%
15% -28.3% 16% -19.8%
20% -35.3% 3% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.39 · official $4.39 (match) · 264 history records