Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:12:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4280…cb8c sports 298 markets active 11h ago coverage 188d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$597 (-13%) realized −$627 · open +$30
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate39%114W / 180L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$370now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days−$66
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$98
sports 37% −$434
politics 10% −$3
world 5% −$61
finance 1% −$17
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +9.9% -0.6% 100% 33% -0.6%
≤30d 25 -18.5% -26.3% 24% 8% -25.3%
≤90d 217 -48.0% -53.0% 21% 6% -32.1%
all 294 -13.4% -21.7% 39% 28% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 28% -22.9%
10% -29.2% 24% -30.3%
15% -36.0% 20% -37.0%
20% -42.3% 17% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

188d coverage
Net worth$370
Realized−$627
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses114 / 180
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)294 / 298
History coverage188d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $210 $220 +$10 (+5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $60 $83 +$23 (+39%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $72 −$2 -3%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $10 −$2 -23%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $10 −$3 -30%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $21 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $41 −$3 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $49 −$27 -54%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 06 $21 −$3 -13%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 04 $20 −$2 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $60 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $10 −$2 -20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 01 $10 −$7 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 01 $10 −$7 -64%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $30 −$1 -4%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 May 29 $20 +$2 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $20 −$1 -6%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? May 27 $10 −$1 -14%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $10 −$6 -60%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 25 $10 −$2 -23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 May 19 $20 −$4 -20%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $21 −$14 -69%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 204.5 May 18 $20 −$3 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $20 −$18 -90%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026? May 16 $9 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $9 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $20 −$11 -56%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $10 $0 +1%
First Blood in Game 1? May 14 $9 $0 +0%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 May 14 $25 −$5 -19%
Will Discord not IPO by June 30, 2026? May 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Will Discord’s market cap be $30B or greater at market close on IPO da May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $25B and $30B at market close on May 14 $5 $0 -9%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $20B and $25B at market close on May 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Discord’s market cap be between $15B and $20B at market close on May 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Discord’s market cap be less than $15B at market close on IPO day May 14 $3 $0 -2%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 May 13 $25 −$7 -27%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 +$2 +16%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 13 $9 $0 +0%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup May 13 $9 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Rio Phillips be the Democratic nominee for Senate in West Virgini May 13 $89 $0 -0%
Will Gary L. Rogge win the 2026 Nebraska Governor Republican primary e May 13 $19 $0 +0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $26 +$6 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 11h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 11h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $113 11h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 58¢ $2 32h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 60¢ $9 32h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 56¢ $1 35h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 35h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 60¢ $9 36h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 39h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 3d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 57¢ $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 SELL Under 54¢ $10 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 45¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 7d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $25 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 7d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 8d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 SELL Over 36¢ $7 8d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.23 · official $370.23 (match) · 799 history records