Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4281…634d crypto 564 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate75%423W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day31.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$101
14 days−$97
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$6
weather 9% −$71
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -10.2% -18.7% 68% 38% -28.1%
≤30d 527 +1.2% -8.4% 76% 40% -12.1%
≤90d 564 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 40% -11.0%
all 564 +1.3% -8.3% 75% 40% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 40% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 23% -19.5%
15% -25.1% 12% -27.3%
20% -32.5% 7% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses423 / 141
Open positions0
Markets (closed)564 / 564
History coverage39d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day31.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 564 Trades
no open positions (35 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? Jun 12 $16 −$6 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 14? Jun 12 $43 −$19 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 19? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 19? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1728 history records