Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

42
0x4282…3455
world · 273 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$355 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$376 · open −$57
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$957
Realized+$376
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses130 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions69
Markets (closed)205 / 273
History coverage32d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day104.2
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 69 History 205 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$32
14 days+$264
30 days+$388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $143 $144 +$2 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $55 $55 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+12%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 88¢ 99¢ $29 $33 +$4 (+12%)
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by June 8? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $27 $33 +$5 (+20%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 100¢ $12 $30 +$18 (+146%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 42¢ $19 $29 +$10 (+54%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $24 $25 +$0 (+2%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 94¢ $24 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 86¢ 78¢ $24 $21 −$2 (-10%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? No 68¢ 52¢ $27 $21 −$7 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+30%)
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? No 51¢ 66¢ $15 $20 +$5 (+30%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 8-14? Yes $15 $19 +$3 (+21%)
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? No 99¢ 100¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 40¢ 96¢ $7 $16 +$9 (+137%)
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Yes 92¢ 100¢ $12 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 81¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 30¢ 50¢ $7 $11 +$5 (+70%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 15¢ 23¢ $7 $11 +$4 (+49%)
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $9 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 12 $10 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $12 +$2 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $15 −$14 -91%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? Jun 11 $5 +$10 +202%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 11 $16 $0 +2%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $90 +$3 +3%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $25 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $28 +$1 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $8 $0 +1%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $41 +$10 +25%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 09 $9 −$7 -73%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $30 +$2 +6%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $41 +$7 +17%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $5 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $36 +$7 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $266 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $13 +$5 +41%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $9 −$2 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $24 +$1 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 07 $12 +$1 +8%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $18 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will GameStop (GME) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 07 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $17 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $12 +$18 +149%
Will "The Amazing Digital Circus: The Last Act" Opening Weekend Box Of Jun 06 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $22 +$24 +107%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2 +$1 +36%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" 3+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $17 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $6 +$3 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $4 +$1 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$86
crypto 21% +$204
politics 11% +$6
other 8% +$13
tech 1% +$13
finance 1% +$4
economics 1% −$1
sports 1% −$6
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $5 8m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 8m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 13m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 17m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $9 18m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY No 57¢ $5 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 20m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 20m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 21m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $0 21m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 36m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 36m
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $0 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $5 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $0 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +0.5% -9.0% 62% 33% -4.3%
≤30d 196 +15.8% +4.8% 64% 31% +1.8%
≤90d 205 +13.7% +2.8% 63% 30% +1.4%
all 205 +13.7% +2.8% 63% 30% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover104.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 30% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 22% -8.3%
15% -16.0% 18% -17.2%
20% -24.2% 12% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $957.31 · official $957.32 (match) · 3500 history records