Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
42 0x4282…6725 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$68 (+10%) realized −$2 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +64% what you keep after slip
Net edge+64%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%12W / 6L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$276now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$55
7 days+$71
14 days+$61
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$82
sports 15% +$13
crypto 7% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+70.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +99.2% +80.2% 71% 65% +4.1%
≤30d 18 +88.1% +70.2% 67% 61% +2.0%
≤90d 18 +88.1% +70.2% 67% 61% +2.0%
all 18 +88.1% +70.2% 67% 61% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +70.2% 61% +2.0%
10% +53.9% 50% -7.8%
15% +39.1% 44% -16.7%
20% +25.4% 33% -24.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +164% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.68 per $1 lost it wins $1.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$276
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses12 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage9d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $200 $266 +$66 (+33%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 59¢ 100¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $71 +$7 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 −$23 -57%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$17 +83%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 −$23 -44%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $22 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $26 +$16 +62%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$12 +23%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$1 +126%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$6 +20%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 +$10 +48%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$15 +1420%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 59¢ $6 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 75¢ $22 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 67¢ $20 3h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $56 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $17 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 19h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 19h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 95¢ $37 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 26¢ $20 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $31 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $22 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 44h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 44h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 2d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $62 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 3d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $275.96 · official $275.96 (match) · 41 history records