Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:20:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
42 0x4283…fbd4 sports 639 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 126d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,391 (-8%) realized −$25,617 · open −$2,774
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate58%366W / 270L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$590per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$4,171est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$236
7 days+$1,778
14 days+$2,515
30 days−$15,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$11,501
other 13% −$4,236
world 0% −$66
crypto 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -1.0% -10.4% 51% 46% -2.6%
≤30d 101 -13.7% -21.9% 46% 43% -33.4%
≤90d 480 -7.1% -16.0% 57% 47% -13.2%
all 636 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 48% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.3% 48% -12.7%
10% -24.3% 36% -21.0%
15% ← realistic here -31.6% 29% -28.7%
20% -38.3% 19% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$731) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$290 vs −$441 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$25,617
Unrealized−$2,774
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses366 / 270
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$4,171
Open positions3
Markets (closed)636 / 639
History coverage126d ⚠
Avg bet$590
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 636 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 54¢ 0¢ $2,025 $2 −$2,023 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ 0¢ $391 $0 −$391 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 48¢ 0¢ $360 $0 −$360 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $612 +$693 +113%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $1,283 +$1,465 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $908 +$360 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,999 +$1,198 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $903 −$894 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $537 −$274 -51%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $514 −$514 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $378 −$378 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $618 −$618 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 17 $2,340 −$143 -6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $404 −$404 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $367 −$367 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 17 $646 −$646 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $235 −$235 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 17 $1,639 −$1,639 -100%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $161 −$161 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $149 −$149 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $486 +$46 +10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $162 −$162 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $247 −$247 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $343 −$254 -74%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,642 +$508 +31%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $957 −$36 -4%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $801 +$198 +25%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $620 +$657 +106%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $635 +$464 +73%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $612 +$642 +105%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $286 +$322 +112%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $510 +$230 +45%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $205 +$370 +180%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $215 −$9 -4%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $96 +$121 +126%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $150 +$195 +130%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $459 +$502 +109%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $361 +$702 +195%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $400 $0 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $161 +$109 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $77 +$33 +43%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $98 +$52 +53%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $107 −$6 -5%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $693 +$896 +129%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $891 +$115 +13%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $261 −$261 -100%
LoL: Winthrop University vs CCG Esports (BO5) - North American Challen Jun 07 $163 −$163 -100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $432 −$432 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $831 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $59 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $5 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $11 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $22 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $549 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $308 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $244 43m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $510 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $450 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $306 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $8 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $29 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $14 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $398 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 42¢ $201 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $176 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $4 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $215 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $2,748 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $268 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $45 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $10 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $11 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $6 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $5 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $290 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $266 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 44¢ $88 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $2.73 (match) · 3500 history records