Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
42 0x4288…57ff crypto 138 markets active 1h ago coverage 211d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,517 (-8%) realized −$1,517 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%64W / 74L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$584
7 days−$659
14 days−$2,577
30 days−$2,317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,305
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -41.3% -46.9% 30% 30% -48.1%
≤30d 91 -19.0% -26.7% 40% 35% -35.2%
≤90d 101 -13.0% -21.3% 43% 38% -33.7%
all 138 -9.3% -17.9% 46% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 41% -20.8%
10% -25.8% 36% -28.4%
15% -33.0% 34% -35.3%
20% -39.5% 28% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$89 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

211d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,517
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses64 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage211d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $185 −$176 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $84 −$80 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $126 −$116 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $94 −$92 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$60 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$45 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $207 +$155 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $109 +$79 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 23 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $24 +$16 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 23 $225 −$216 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $129 −$115 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$26 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $41 +$34 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$32 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$20 +175%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$44 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 9AM ET Jun 12 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on April 27? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 1PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $70 −$29 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 12 $52 −$26 -51%
Solana Up or Down - January 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $65 −$15 -23%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 10PM ET Jun 12 $105 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 25, 9PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $600 +$3 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 10, 10AM ET Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 26, 5AM ET Jun 12 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on December 2 Jun 12 $211 −$211 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $81 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $362 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $176 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 583 history records