Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:43:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
42 0x428b…4f48 sports 143 markets active 1h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,370 (-3%) realized −$1,373 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate56%73W / 57L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$276per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$3,145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days−$311
14 days−$80
30 days−$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$1,488
sports 36% −$80
crypto 1% −$2
world 1% +$15
politics 0% +$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 +5.5% -4.6% 54% 47% -18.4%
≤30d 66 +3.5% -6.3% 55% 44% -10.0%
≤90d 83 -0.2% -9.7% 53% 35% -14.1%
all 130 -2.1% -11.4% 56% 36% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 36% -13.1%
10% -19.9% 30% -21.5%
15% -27.6% 24% -29.0%
20% -34.7% 15% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$67 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$3,145
Realized−$1,373
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses73 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions12
Markets (closed)130 / 143
History coverage628d
Avg bet$276
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $912 $902 −$10 (-1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $402 $412 +$11 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $323 $369 +$46 (+14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $330 $273 −$57 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $207 $257 +$50 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $168 $235 +$67 (+40%)
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 93¢ 90¢ $179 $173 −$6 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $206 $147 −$59 (-29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $168 $133 −$35 (-21%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $106 $115 +$9 (+8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $90 $79 −$11 (-12%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$15 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $21 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $43 −$6 -14%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $72 +$29 +40%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $53 −$7 -14%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$20 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$27 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 +$13 +27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$24 +46%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$8 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 +$4 +82%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $57 +$63 +111%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$4 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$26 +50%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $35 +$15 +42%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $34 +$16 +46%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$36 -66%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $323 −$320 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $86 −$85 -99%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $33 −$33 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$15 -31%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $50 −$24 -48%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $51 +$49 +95%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $71 −$40 -57%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $170 −$14 -8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $48 +$12 +26%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 −$6 -19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $58 +$42 +72%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 +$9 +6%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $49 +$31 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$17 -34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $47 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $47 −$14 -30%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $72 +$15 +20%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $23 +$17 +76%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $40 −$9 -22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $90 +$4 +5%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $97 −$30 -31%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 +$18 +55%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $43 +$7 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $36 +$14 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $23 +$27 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $42 −$2 -5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$4 -16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $41 −$11 -27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $186 30m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $191 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $167 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $382 32m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $407 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 65¢ $37 19h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 68¢ $21 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $43 23h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 24h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $50 24h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $51 24h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 67¢ $17 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $22 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $27 24h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $24 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 54¢ $27 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 53¢ $26 24h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $28 25h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $26 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 40h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $30 40h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $43 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $2 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $4 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $12 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $47 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $51 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,144.81 · official $3,144.81 (match) · 509 history records